***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 26.0 26.8 26.9 1.9 84.2 79.9 23.7 24.7 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 26.2 27.4 27.6 2.7 89.5 84.8 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 26.0 26.8 27.0 2.0 84.7 80.1 24.0 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 18.6 18.9 24.2 1.2 73.9 70.2 16.9 17.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 26.2 26.5 24.6 1.3 76.0 71.8 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 24.4 24.6 22.0 0.9 70.3 66.7 22.8 23.6 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 25.9 26.9 27.4 2.5 88.3 83.7 23.7 24.5 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 14.1 14.5 22.9 1.4 78.0 72.8 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 25.5 25.9 25.1 1.4 77.3 72.8 23.7 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 25.5 25.8 23.7 1.4 77.5 72.7 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 25.9 26.3 24.2 1.4 77.5 72.7 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 24.7 25.2 24.0 1.5 80.0 74.4 23.1 23.8 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.2 23.4 1.3 75.8 71.0 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 25.8 26.4 25.1 1.8 82.4 77.2 23.9 24.7 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 26.4 26.6 25.1 1.2 73.8 70.4 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.8 23.9 1.2 75.3 70.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 25.7 26.6 27.0 2.4 86.8 81.9 23.4 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 24.8 25.2 23.1 1.5 78.1 72.9 23.2 23.9 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 25.7 26.9 27.6 2.7 89.7 84.8 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 20.2 20.5 20.7 1.2 74.7 70.0 18.4 19.3 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 25.9 26.3 26.1 1.6 79.2 74.8 23.9 24.8 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 26.2 27.2 26.9 2.4 87.5 82.4 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 26.0 27.1 27.2 2.5 89.2 84.0 23.9 24.8 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 25.2 25.8 25.0 1.7 81.1 75.8 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 25.9 26.4 24.9 1.5 79.1 75.0 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 25.3 25.7 23.2 1.4 77.6 72.8 23.7 24.4 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 25.7 26.3 25.9 1.8 82.0 77.8 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.5 24.6 1.1 72.3 68.8 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 20.0 20.4 22.0 1.4 76.8 71.6 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 26.1 27.1 27.6 2.5 88.8 84.1 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------