***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 7.9 10.8 9.4 53.2 38.8 32.2 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.5 8.4 8.7 54.9 40.7 35.9 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 7.9 10.1 7.9 49.3 36.5 30.9 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 6.5 7.8 8.8 43.6 32.0 27.5 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 7.2 8.8 9.4 50.2 35.3 29.9 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 5.9 9.1 12.1 67.2 42.8 35.7 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.5 10.3 62.0 46.3 40.3 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 9.6 12.6 9.6 55.6 36.1 30.6 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 5.2 6.0 7.9 45.9 32.4 26.8 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 8.1 9.2 9.0 48.3 31.8 27.5 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 4.3 5.2 7.6 47.8 33.8 28.0 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 5.5 7.8 7.9 55.1 38.5 31.1 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.7 8.1 11.7 69.8 43.6 38.2 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 6.1 6.7 7.6 43.9 27.7 24.5 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.4 5.6 9.9 53.5 37.7 32.4 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 5.6 7.8 10.0 60.7 40.0 33.6 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.8 7.7 8.7 56.5 42.1 36.8 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 6.0 6.6 8.9 46.6 28.4 25.2 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.1 8.4 7.2 47.6 35.3 31.1 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 7.6 9.6 10.8 57.2 35.6 31.3 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 5.9 7.2 7.3 43.6 33.6 27.5 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 6.5 8.2 7.5 50.2 37.3 32.3 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 5.8 6.4 6.4 42.6 30.1 26.8 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 6.4 7.3 7.7 44.0 28.3 24.3 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 6.1 7.3 10.8 51.4 34.1 30.4 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 8.6 13.5 81.0 50.1 44.2 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 8.0 11.2 11.5 57.4 40.0 33.9 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 6.0 8.0 9.8 53.2 37.5 31.4 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 8.8 10.1 9.2 50.0 30.1 27.2 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 7.9 10.6 9.0 54.2 41.3 35.7 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------