***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.3 13.5 16.7 132.5 73.5 55.9 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 15.6 15.7 118.1 69.5 53.4 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.6 12.5 15.6 115.2 68.5 51.8 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.1 22.0 20.2 128.3 72.7 58.3 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 17.6 20.9 134.5 74.1 58.8 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.3 21.1 28.1 125.1 71.2 58.4 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.4 16.6 127.7 72.2 55.7 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.7 34.9 21.5 123.5 70.9 57.9 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.9 17.0 20.5 133.8 73.9 56.1 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 19.8 22.0 119.6 69.8 56.2 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.5 17.9 16.9 121.7 70.8 57.0 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.4 18.8 17.1 129.5 72.8 57.6 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.9 19.7 21.7 129.3 72.5 58.2 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.5 19.9 17.9 96.7 62.2 49.0 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 15.7 16.2 108.2 67.3 53.5 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.8 18.0 19.1 122.1 70.7 56.8 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.5 14.5 16.3 125.1 71.4 53.7 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 18.2 23.2 106.2 65.3 54.1 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.9 15.2 114.7 68.6 52.3 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.8 18.1 24.6 108.0 65.9 56.1 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.6 17.1 131.1 73.2 54.4 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.5 18.0 14.4 111.1 67.4 51.2 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.9 12.1 15.2 111.9 68.0 50.5 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.4 16.4 19.1 103.8 64.4 51.1 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.2 13.6 21.3 133.5 73.8 59.2 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.0 19.7 17.8 136.5 74.5 57.7 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.6 13.1 20.9 135.7 74.3 58.3 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.2 15.5 18.9 119.4 70.3 55.4 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 22.8 21.9 101.8 64.0 53.9 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.5 15.7 117.8 69.4 52.9 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------