***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 54.6 73.7 48.6 90.1 51.9 46.4 56.2 71.6 88.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 53.7 68.5 47.2 89.4 51.6 46.5 55.0 67.2 80.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 59.6 75.0 45.6 85.3 47.7 42.9 61.4 77.1 94.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 58.5 87.1 59.0 96.8 56.3 50.1 62.6 80.0 98.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 54.9 76.3 60.8 102.1 59.1 50.3 57.5 69.5 81.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 74.2 81.7 84.4 113.2 66.1 57.4 54.4 67.5 81.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 43.9 62.0 50.5 93.5 54.4 48.8 44.8 58.2 72.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 85.8 115.5 69.6 107.2 62.0 51.3 87.2 103.2 120.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 53.9 70.2 57.9 97.5 55.9 45.7 56.8 66.6 76.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 56.5 77.5 67.7 97.6 55.4 46.1 58.4 72.6 88.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 50.7 67.5 52.8 101.7 59.3 50.0 51.8 61.6 71.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 65.2 69.5 53.8 108.8 63.4 52.1 47.3 59.1 72.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 65.4 71.7 65.7 112.0 65.4 55.4 49.6 60.5 72.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 68.3 83.6 56.6 83.3 44.7 39.6 73.2 88.2 104.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 40.4 58.8 51.4 92.0 53.5 47.6 42.1 55.9 71.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 60.9 64.1 58.4 106.7 62.2 53.0 43.4 55.0 67.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 44.1 65.4 47.9 90.5 52.1 46.1 45.8 63.2 83.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 63.5 77.5 72.5 92.5 50.6 43.1 65.8 77.3 89.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 59.1 74.5 44.3 86.4 49.6 44.7 60.2 75.1 90.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 77.6 78.1 80.8 102.7 58.7 50.0 61.6 72.3 83.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 48.1 66.3 48.9 91.3 52.5 44.2 51.7 64.3 77.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 52.1 68.3 44.5 86.3 48.3 42.4 55.0 69.8 85.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 51.7 62.0 43.6 84.8 48.3 42.7 52.3 63.1 74.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 67.3 80.9 58.8 86.6 46.8 40.6 70.7 83.4 96.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 50.4 69.0 61.0 92.7 53.0 47.8 52.6 66.3 81.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 61.4 71.3 58.6 117.7 68.8 58.0 43.3 55.3 68.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 53.9 72.2 59.9 93.3 53.8 48.6 54.9 69.0 84.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 43.9 62.0 57.4 98.4 57.5 50.9 46.2 57.0 68.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 80.0 99.5 71.1 93.8 51.7 44.4 83.3 97.9 112.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 55.7 71.4 47.1 88.1 50.6 46.2 57.8 70.9 84.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------