***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.5 12.2 -0.9 34.2 36.8 11.4 12.3 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 10.8 10.8 11.4 -1.4 24.6 28.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.6 12.8 12.3 -0.8 34.0 36.4 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.4 10.2 -0.2 46.2 46.8 7.4 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.6 10.8 -0.3 43.9 44.9 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.5 10.6 9.6 1.3 74.0 70.4 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 10.8 10.8 11.4 -1.4 24.1 27.9 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.9 8.8 0.6 62.2 60.1 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.7 11.2 0.0 50.1 50.1 10.9 11.7 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.7 9.6 0.3 57.0 55.9 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.5 10.9 0.2 54.0 53.4 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.9 9.9 0.5 59.9 58.3 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.5 10.5 0.8 66.0 63.9 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.0 10.6 -0.2 46.0 46.4 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.6 12.3 0.1 51.7 51.4 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.0 10.5 0.2 54.9 54.4 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 10.9 10.8 10.8 -1.6 19.5 24.1 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.2 8.8 0.2 54.0 53.5 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 11.0 11.1 11.6 -1.2 27.5 30.9 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.6 7.3 0.6 61.6 59.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.3 12.0 -0.4 42.4 43.5 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 10.4 10.4 11.3 -1.3 23.8 27.8 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 10.9 11.1 11.8 -0.9 32.5 35.1 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.5 10.7 -0.1 47.1 47.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.5 11.5 -0.7 36.9 38.9 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.4 10.0 1.4 74.8 70.8 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 11.2 11.4 11.8 -0.9 33.6 36.3 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.7 11.1 0.0 50.5 50.4 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.9 8.2 0.4 57.6 56.4 7.4 8.5 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 11.0 11.2 11.9 -1.2 28.1 31.4 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------