***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.9 16.3 1.1 68.3 62.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.3 16.3 1.2 68.7 63.5 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.8 16.4 1.0 68.3 62.9 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.5 13.4 0.7 63.4 59.5 8.7 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.2 13.4 0.7 63.2 59.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 11.3 11.2 11.4 0.8 67.0 61.5 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.2 16.3 1.2 68.9 63.6 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.1 5.9 11.2 0.7 64.7 60.6 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.3 13.7 0.7 65.0 60.4 11.9 12.7 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.2 12.1 0.8 65.9 61.4 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.8 12.8 0.6 62.5 59.1 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 11.3 11.1 12.0 0.7 63.5 59.7 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.5 11.4 0.6 63.2 59.3 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.1 13.8 1.0 68.8 64.3 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.0 14.6 0.7 62.9 59.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 11.8 13.2 12.2 0.6 62.6 58.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 14.4 14.5 16.1 1.2 68.9 63.7 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.2 11.4 0.9 69.2 64.0 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 14.1 14.2 16.3 1.2 69.0 63.8 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.7 9.1 0.8 66.5 62.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.4 15.2 0.8 65.9 61.0 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.9 16.0 1.3 71.0 65.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.9 16.1 1.1 69.5 64.2 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.6 13.6 1.0 69.7 64.4 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.6 14.7 0.9 66.0 61.0 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.0 11.2 0.7 65.2 60.9 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.1 15.6 1.1 68.4 62.7 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.2 13.7 0.7 63.0 59.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.6 10.7 0.8 68.1 63.5 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.4 16.5 1.2 68.8 63.5 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------