***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.9 17.3 1.4 72.9 66.1 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.6 17.0 1.2 69.7 63.7 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.4 17.4 1.3 71.8 65.4 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.8 14.5 1.2 71.1 65.5 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.8 14.6 1.1 70.6 65.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.6 13.0 12.5 1.2 74.4 67.4 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.8 17.1 1.3 71.4 64.5 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.9 12.2 1.1 71.4 65.2 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.0 14.7 1.2 71.6 66.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.8 13.1 1.2 72.5 66.3 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.5 13.9 1.0 70.1 64.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 12.5 12.6 13.1 1.0 70.7 64.7 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.2 12.5 1.0 71.1 65.1 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.7 14.8 1.2 72.5 66.5 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.7 15.8 1.1 70.8 64.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.0 13.3 1.1 70.8 65.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.9 16.8 1.2 69.3 63.1 13.7 14.7 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.7 12.4 1.3 75.1 67.8 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.4 17.0 1.2 70.0 64.2 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 8.8 9.2 10.0 1.1 73.9 67.1 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.0 16.2 1.2 71.4 65.8 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.0 16.7 1.3 70.5 64.4 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.1 16.9 1.3 71.4 65.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.4 14.5 1.3 74.1 67.4 12.8 13.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.1 15.6 1.2 71.1 65.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.7 12.4 1.2 74.0 66.6 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 15.2 15.6 16.5 1.4 73.0 66.5 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.8 13.8 14.9 1.1 71.5 65.5 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.3 11.7 1.2 74.5 67.3 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.9 17.3 1.3 70.9 64.5 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------