***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 20.8 20.4 21.1 -2.1 22.5 29.5 21.6 23.2 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 21.4 21.0 21.1 -2.4 20.7 27.0 22.3 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 21.4 20.7 20.8 -2.5 19.8 26.6 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 13.8 13.2 17.5 -2.3 20.1 27.5 14.8 16.5 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 21.2 20.4 18.6 -2.6 18.1 25.5 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 20.5 21.1 17.6 -1.1 34.5 38.6 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 21.2 21.0 21.0 -2.3 21.8 28.0 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 9.9 9.5 16.7 -2.3 21.5 29.1 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 20.6 19.7 19.5 -2.7 16.8 24.5 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 20.8 20.0 17.5 -2.6 18.2 26.0 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 20.9 20.0 18.9 -2.8 17.4 24.9 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 20.3 20.0 18.0 -2.2 22.1 29.4 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.6 21.6 19.3 -1.9 26.0 32.3 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 21.1 20.3 19.2 -2.6 17.3 24.8 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 21.9 21.2 20.3 -2.6 17.9 25.2 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 21.7 21.3 18.7 -2.4 21.4 28.4 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 21.0 20.8 20.7 -2.2 22.1 27.9 21.8 23.2 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 20.4 19.7 16.5 -2.7 17.4 25.5 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 21.0 20.5 21.0 -2.5 19.9 26.5 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 16.0 15.6 14.9 -2.1 23.4 31.6 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 21.0 20.1 20.3 -2.7 17.5 24.9 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 21.4 21.3 20.8 -2.0 23.7 29.4 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 21.3 20.6 20.7 -2.6 18.7 25.6 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 20.6 19.7 18.9 -2.7 16.8 24.6 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 21.0 20.3 19.5 -2.4 19.5 26.4 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.3 18.7 -0.7 40.0 43.0 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 21.2 20.7 20.4 -2.2 21.9 29.0 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 21.7 21.1 18.7 -2.4 19.4 26.6 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 15.5 14.7 15.8 -2.6 17.8 26.3 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 21.3 20.9 21.1 -2.3 21.5 27.8 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------