***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.6 25.5 25.1 0.9 61.4 55.7 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.2 25.1 24.9 0.5 55.5 51.5 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.9 25.4 25.1 0.7 58.5 53.5 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 15.3 17.7 21.7 0.5 57.1 52.3 15.6 17.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 22.8 25.2 22.8 0.4 55.6 51.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 21.0 23.7 20.4 0.6 58.4 52.6 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.6 24.8 24.8 0.5 56.6 52.3 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.2 13.0 21.0 0.6 57.8 52.4 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.2 24.8 23.6 0.6 57.3 52.5 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 22.1 24.7 22.0 0.7 59.0 53.3 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 22.4 24.7 22.9 0.4 54.6 50.6 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 21.1 23.7 22.1 0.5 56.4 51.4 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 21.9 24.6 22.1 0.3 54.4 50.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.2 23.4 0.8 59.6 54.2 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 23.4 25.3 23.7 0.3 54.0 50.7 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 22.6 25.2 22.3 0.3 53.9 50.1 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.4 24.5 0.5 55.4 51.3 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.4 24.3 21.3 0.8 60.1 53.9 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.6 24.7 25.0 0.5 56.0 51.9 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 16.2 19.2 18.7 0.6 57.4 52.2 16.8 18.5 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.6 25.1 24.4 0.6 57.4 52.7 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.2 24.6 0.7 58.2 53.3 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 23.0 25.2 25.0 0.6 57.2 52.7 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.2 24.7 23.4 0.8 59.9 54.1 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 22.8 25.2 23.3 0.6 57.9 53.2 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.7 24.3 21.6 0.7 58.7 52.8 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.5 25.1 24.2 0.8 60.3 54.9 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 23.3 25.3 22.5 0.4 55.1 51.2 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 16.4 19.3 20.3 0.7 58.2 52.7 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 22.9 25.1 25.0 0.6 57.1 52.7 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------