***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 26.2 26.7 27.6 2.3 74.6 68.9 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 26.9 27.1 27.6 2.1 72.1 67.4 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 26.7 27.1 27.8 2.3 73.7 68.4 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 19.0 19.0 24.6 1.7 69.7 65.5 16.4 17.6 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 27.0 26.9 25.2 1.7 68.8 64.9 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.2 22.3 1.5 68.4 64.1 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 26.6 26.8 27.6 2.2 73.3 68.2 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 14.6 14.7 23.6 1.9 70.7 66.2 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 26.3 26.4 25.6 1.9 70.7 66.4 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.4 24.4 2.0 72.1 67.3 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 26.6 26.6 25.0 1.6 68.1 64.3 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 25.4 25.4 24.9 1.8 69.4 65.1 23.0 24.2 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 26.6 26.6 23.8 1.6 68.3 64.3 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.6 27.0 25.6 2.3 74.1 68.8 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 26.8 26.8 25.6 1.6 68.7 64.5 24.5 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 27.2 27.2 24.4 1.6 68.3 64.3 24.8 25.9 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 26.5 26.8 27.5 2.3 73.3 68.5 23.0 24.6 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 25.8 26.1 24.0 2.3 74.7 69.2 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 26.5 26.6 27.7 2.2 72.3 67.6 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 21.2 21.3 21.1 2.0 72.0 67.3 18.4 19.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 26.6 26.8 26.6 2.0 71.9 67.1 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 27.0 27.5 27.5 2.5 75.2 70.0 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 26.9 27.1 27.7 2.3 73.1 68.2 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 26.2 26.6 25.7 2.4 75.0 69.4 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 26.6 26.8 25.5 2.0 72.5 67.5 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 26.1 26.2 24.3 1.9 70.6 66.1 23.9 24.9 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 26.4 26.8 26.6 2.2 74.5 68.8 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 26.9 26.9 24.9 1.6 68.7 64.6 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 20.9 21.2 22.9 2.1 73.3 68.1 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 26.7 26.9 27.6 2.2 72.6 67.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------