***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 28.3 29.4 28.3 2.4 77.6 68.0 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.5 28.1 2.2 74.6 65.4 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 27.9 28.7 28.5 2.4 76.7 67.4 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 21.1 21.7 25.7 2.1 75.8 67.7 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 28.5 29.0 26.2 2.1 75.1 67.4 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 26.8 27.5 23.6 2.2 77.0 68.2 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 27.5 28.2 28.1 2.2 75.5 65.8 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.9 24.4 2.1 75.0 66.5 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 27.9 28.5 26.6 2.3 76.6 68.3 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 27.6 28.3 25.2 2.4 77.2 68.3 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 28.1 28.7 26.0 2.1 74.8 67.1 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 26.9 27.5 25.9 2.2 74.6 66.5 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 28.1 28.8 24.9 2.2 74.9 67.0 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 27.6 28.5 26.2 2.3 77.2 67.0 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 28.9 29.3 26.8 2.1 75.3 66.9 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 28.8 29.4 25.6 2.2 75.5 67.5 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 27.5 27.9 27.9 2.1 74.0 64.6 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 27.0 27.9 24.7 2.5 78.2 68.5 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 27.3 28.0 28.3 2.2 75.0 65.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 22.5 23.1 21.6 2.0 73.8 64.9 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 27.9 28.7 27.4 2.2 76.0 67.6 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 27.8 28.5 27.8 2.2 75.7 65.8 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 27.6 28.4 28.2 2.3 75.8 66.2 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 27.2 28.2 26.4 2.5 78.5 68.6 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 28.0 28.9 26.3 2.2 76.3 67.6 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 27.6 28.4 25.4 2.3 76.1 67.7 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 27.6 28.6 27.3 2.4 77.9 68.3 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 29.0 29.5 26.1 2.2 76.0 67.8 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 22.3 23.1 23.4 2.2 75.9 66.6 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 27.5 28.3 28.2 2.2 75.5 66.2 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------