***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.5 25.5 0.9 65.6 60.6 23.7 24.7 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.4 25.4 0.6 60.0 56.3 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.5 25.6 0.7 62.3 58.1 24.0 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.1 22.4 0.5 60.1 56.3 16.9 17.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.5 23.2 0.4 57.7 54.7 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 24.0 24.4 21.0 0.8 66.5 60.4 22.8 23.6 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.1 25.4 0.7 61.8 57.5 23.7 24.5 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.6 21.4 0.6 61.3 57.1 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 24.8 25.0 23.8 0.5 59.6 56.1 23.7 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.0 22.3 0.6 61.8 57.6 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.2 23.2 0.3 56.2 53.5 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.2 22.7 0.5 60.2 56.3 23.1 23.8 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.4 22.5 0.5 60.3 56.2 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.9 25.3 23.6 0.7 62.8 58.0 23.9 24.7 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 24.7 25.8 24.1 0.4 56.8 53.7 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.9 22.8 0.4 58.3 54.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.9 25.1 0.6 60.9 57.1 23.4 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.5 21.6 0.7 64.0 58.9 23.2 23.9 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.9 25.5 0.6 60.3 56.5 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.9 19.1 0.6 62.3 57.7 18.4 19.3 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.2 24.7 0.5 60.0 56.5 23.9 24.8 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.6 25.2 0.8 64.5 59.7 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 25.0 25.3 25.4 0.6 61.0 57.0 23.9 24.8 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.5 24.8 23.6 0.7 63.5 58.8 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.4 23.6 0.6 61.3 57.2 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.2 22.5 1.0 68.5 62.5 23.7 24.4 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.3 24.7 0.8 65.1 60.0 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.9 23.0 0.4 58.5 54.9 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.4 19.6 20.6 0.6 61.7 57.1 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.0 25.3 25.5 0.7 61.5 57.3 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------