***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 26.0 30.8 22.2 141.2 75.6 61.4 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.6 16.5 14.8 109.6 66.3 53.7 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 23.2 28.5 21.6 151.4 77.7 63.4 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 25.6 41.9 37.8 217.9 88.3 77.0 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 29.1 44.0 31.7 195.1 85.4 74.7 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 23.4 41.4 41.9 232.2 91.0 81.4 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.5 15.6 14.8 104.1 64.5 51.1 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 34.6 50.5 35.8 184.2 85.0 74.2 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 21.9 32.1 30.6 193.1 85.2 75.1 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 27.8 38.7 34.9 182.2 84.4 74.3 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 18.8 30.4 33.0 205.7 86.4 75.4 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 21.1 34.5 33.9 215.0 88.5 76.8 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 19.1 32.9 37.0 230.4 89.9 79.5 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 25.4 32.1 25.8 148.3 77.5 63.9 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.1 30.2 38.1 237.8 89.1 76.5 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 20.8 37.2 37.5 242.4 90.9 80.8 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.9 10.6 10.9 77.6 54.1 43.2 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 22.4 31.6 34.0 177.1 84.2 74.0 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.0 22.9 16.2 121.4 70.1 57.3 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 22.5 33.5 37.3 193.9 87.2 77.3 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 22.3 30.8 27.3 174.0 82.0 70.4 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.3 12.6 12.1 87.4 57.8 47.4 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 18.5 20.3 18.3 134.6 73.9 60.7 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 26.0 36.1 27.9 173.0 82.6 69.6 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 22.5 28.7 27.9 156.4 78.8 66.0 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 17.1 27.3 30.9 202.3 87.4 74.7 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 18.5 29.0 23.7 138.6 74.9 60.9 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 20.4 35.2 40.4 242.9 90.5 79.6 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 32.7 48.2 34.3 181.4 85.2 74.6 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 21.7 17.4 124.5 71.1 57.9 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------