***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.1 7.6 13.0 78.9 55.8 42.6 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.8 8.9 10.3 75.8 52.6 40.2 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.6 12.6 79.0 54.1 41.5 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.5 10.7 11.3 66.5 47.0 37.7 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.5 8.4 11.7 72.5 50.1 39.7 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.4 13.6 16.1 84.3 54.4 44.1 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.2 7.8 10.3 75.2 52.7 41.1 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 11.7 18.8 11.9 68.3 46.9 36.6 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.1 6.9 11.0 65.1 45.2 35.2 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 6.4 10.6 12.4 68.8 47.1 36.7 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.2 9.7 12.4 75.4 50.4 39.5 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.9 8.1 10.3 65.1 45.6 35.5 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.7 11.5 66.6 47.5 38.1 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.7 14.2 14.0 70.0 49.5 39.8 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.4 9.7 10.8 67.3 50.8 40.8 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.2 8.2 11.0 66.0 45.7 36.1 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.0 7.6 10.2 76.2 53.2 40.6 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.5 10.8 13.5 68.3 47.0 37.1 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.2 7.5 11.0 77.5 53.3 41.0 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.5 10.2 13.2 68.4 45.4 36.3 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.2 7.5 12.1 73.1 50.3 38.8 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.5 11.6 10.9 78.9 54.7 40.7 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.6 11.6 74.7 52.0 42.2 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.7 10.4 13.5 71.2 48.6 38.1 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.7 8.1 14.7 80.8 55.0 42.9 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.1 13.0 79.8 53.9 44.5 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.1 14.5 80.6 55.4 42.4 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.1 10.6 65.8 48.3 38.6 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.3 14.2 14.4 70.6 47.2 37.2 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.5 11.2 77.7 53.9 41.1 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------