***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9.2 19.5 13.2 73.6 55.1 40.8 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 7.0 14.7 10.4 67.8 52.1 38.5 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 9.8 20.0 12.3 69.7 52.5 38.9 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.4 17.3 13.4 68.9 52.9 39.5 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 8.3 14.5 12.2 67.2 51.5 38.3 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 7.2 14.9 16.6 77.8 54.0 42.1 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.1 13.9 10.5 70.0 53.4 40.1 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 16.5 23.3 13.1 65.7 48.5 37.5 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 9.6 16.3 12.6 66.9 50.6 37.1 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.2 14.7 13.9 65.8 49.4 37.2 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 8.2 13.5 10.7 64.5 49.6 37.1 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.0 12.4 10.7 61.8 47.6 36.0 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.6 12.6 13.4 70.8 51.7 39.9 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 13.8 23.1 14.3 63.7 49.0 38.5 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.2 14.4 13.4 74.1 56.5 40.9 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 5.9 10.8 11.9 66.7 50.3 37.6 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 8.9 18.2 10.0 70.1 53.0 39.8 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 25.7 21.8 15.8 68.0 49.4 39.3 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 6.7 16.0 10.8 67.2 51.9 38.4 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.8 15.7 16.6 74.3 51.0 42.1 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 8.7 16.3 12.9 70.7 53.1 39.1 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.9 14.8 10.1 66.0 51.1 38.5 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 7.1 15.3 11.4 68.2 52.2 39.1 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.1 21.9 13.6 64.8 49.0 38.4 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.2 19.0 14.4 73.0 55.1 41.2 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.8 10.1 11.6 69.3 50.9 39.4 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.9 17.2 14.1 73.6 55.1 40.7 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.8 12.7 13.3 69.8 53.5 39.3 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 26.2 22.1 16.8 72.1 50.8 41.2 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.1 16.4 11.1 69.6 52.8 39.1 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------