***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.8 18.3 15.2 93.9 61.0 44.0 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.4 21.5 13.3 89.1 59.8 44.0 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 8.3 20.4 14.3 86.0 57.7 42.9 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.5 20.0 13.4 81.0 55.8 42.8 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.5 15.3 13.1 81.9 56.0 41.3 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.5 14.8 14.9 80.2 52.0 42.2 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.7 17.0 12.7 88.1 59.3 43.2 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.5 19.9 15.3 82.5 54.4 42.4 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.7 15.3 14.6 87.0 58.1 43.4 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 15.6 16.0 81.6 54.3 42.8 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.9 13.7 11.5 79.1 54.3 40.8 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.3 11.7 12.1 81.8 54.9 40.8 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.0 11.3 12.1 75.5 52.2 40.5 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.0 17.2 18.7 88.0 57.3 43.5 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.1 11.9 86.5 59.4 43.9 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.1 9.4 11.3 73.9 52.0 40.1 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.7 22.5 13.2 98.4 63.2 45.3 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.1 14.5 17.8 79.3 52.5 41.9 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.5 23.6 14.2 91.3 60.5 44.4 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.9 15.5 18.6 89.1 56.2 44.7 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 8.2 17.5 14.0 86.7 58.2 42.9 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.5 22.4 13.9 95.5 62.3 44.9 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.6 17.8 14.9 93.1 60.6 44.7 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 7.9 16.9 16.3 80.1 53.6 41.5 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 7.2 17.5 15.4 89.1 59.4 44.1 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.8 11.4 11.4 84.4 56.9 43.7 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.9 16.5 15.4 89.3 59.1 42.9 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.8 12.7 12.7 81.4 56.4 43.0 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 10.3 19.7 17.9 79.6 51.9 41.7 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.8 23.1 13.6 86.9 58.7 43.6 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------