***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 79.7 76.7 63.5 95.9 55.1 48.4 56.2 71.6 88.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 52.1 65.1 48.8 85.0 47.2 43.4 55.0 67.2 80.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 59.3 81.0 60.8 94.3 53.9 47.0 61.4 77.1 94.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 86.8 95.0 75.9 107.8 63.0 56.3 62.6 80.0 98.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 74.9 77.0 68.6 103.2 60.1 52.8 57.5 69.5 81.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 72.5 83.7 89.4 116.0 68.1 59.7 54.4 67.5 81.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 42.0 55.5 48.2 84.2 46.5 42.5 44.8 58.2 72.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 85.8 110.8 76.1 100.8 57.4 51.5 87.2 103.2 120.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 55.9 71.5 68.9 100.6 58.0 50.9 56.8 66.6 76.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 80.2 78.2 77.2 98.9 56.2 50.3 58.4 72.6 88.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 66.5 68.9 67.6 106.0 61.6 54.3 51.8 61.6 71.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 64.9 67.8 67.0 105.4 61.0 54.0 47.3 59.1 72.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 65.4 70.1 73.9 108.5 63.2 55.9 49.6 60.5 72.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 69.9 87.9 72.9 89.8 49.6 44.1 73.2 88.2 104.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 62.3 72.6 74.1 116.0 67.3 60.0 42.1 55.9 71.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 60.2 65.7 71.8 109.9 64.0 56.6 43.4 55.0 67.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 42.4 57.0 44.2 80.3 44.3 41.4 45.8 63.2 83.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 82.8 79.7 81.2 95.8 53.5 48.5 65.8 77.3 89.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 57.6 74.5 52.1 88.3 49.6 44.7 60.2 75.1 90.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 76.9 78.9 85.8 104.4 59.8 54.3 61.6 72.3 83.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 70.5 70.4 66.3 99.5 57.5 50.0 51.7 64.3 77.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 52.4 65.9 47.0 81.7 45.7 42.2 55.0 69.8 85.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 51.2 63.9 56.2 90.8 51.5 45.1 52.3 63.1 74.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 69.6 85.2 71.3 93.3 52.3 46.7 70.7 83.4 96.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 72.5 72.7 72.4 99.1 57.3 50.5 52.6 66.3 81.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 61.2 65.9 66.9 108.4 63.1 54.6 43.3 55.3 68.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 76.1 72.6 67.7 94.7 54.1 47.5 54.9 69.0 84.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 61.3 68.7 77.0 114.0 66.2 59.1 46.2 57.0 68.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 104.6 102.1 83.4 97.9 54.8 49.7 83.3 97.9 112.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 55.5 70.9 53.2 88.8 50.0 44.8 57.8 70.9 84.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------