***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 12.5 12.1 13.3 -0.2 45.8 45.9 11.4 12.3 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 12.1 12.2 13.4 0.2 53.0 52.8 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 13.8 13.5 13.1 -0.2 46.7 46.8 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 8.7 8.6 11.4 0.1 51.6 51.6 7.3 8.5 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 10.9 10.5 11.2 -0.3 43.3 43.6 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 9.7 9.4 9.3 -0.2 46.0 46.4 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 12.3 12.2 13.4 0.0 50.8 50.7 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 4.5 3.7 8.8 -0.5 40.3 41.0 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.9 11.2 -0.7 35.0 35.6 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.7 9.3 -0.7 34.1 35.0 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 11.5 10.8 10.4 -0.5 38.9 39.4 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 9.8 9.1 9.5 -0.4 40.8 41.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.2 9.3 -0.7 34.3 35.2 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 12.4 11.8 11.3 -0.4 41.6 42.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.6 11.7 11.7 -0.9 31.5 32.4 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 12.0 11.3 10.3 -0.4 41.7 42.2 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 12.5 12.6 13.3 0.3 54.8 54.5 11.5 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.2 8.3 -0.8 32.0 32.9 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 12.3 12.4 13.3 0.1 52.8 52.6 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 5.5 6.4 -0.7 33.9 34.8 5.4 6.3 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 11.8 11.2 12.6 -0.4 41.0 41.4 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 11.7 11.8 13.2 0.2 53.5 53.3 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 11.9 11.8 13.0 0.0 50.5 50.5 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.1 10.8 -0.5 38.6 39.1 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 12.3 11.6 12.0 -0.4 42.0 42.3 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 10.5 10.2 9.5 -0.1 46.8 47.0 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.4 11.6 12.5 -0.4 41.9 42.2 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 10.8 10.3 11.5 -0.3 43.1 43.4 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.5 7.9 -0.6 35.6 36.5 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.4 13.5 0.1 51.1 51.0 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------