***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.7 15.9 1.3 70.8 69.0 11.4 12.5 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.8 15.9 1.3 70.9 68.8 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.5 15.7 1.2 70.6 68.6 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 10.3 10.5 13.8 1.3 72.2 69.8 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 11.9 12.1 13.7 1.3 73.4 70.7 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.5 11.8 1.0 69.3 67.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.8 13.9 16.0 1.4 71.8 69.6 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 5.5 5.6 11.6 1.0 67.6 65.6 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.8 12.9 14.0 1.3 72.4 70.0 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.8 12.3 1.1 70.7 68.2 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.6 13.2 1.3 73.4 70.3 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.5 10.6 12.5 1.0 69.0 66.8 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.8 11.9 12.1 1.1 70.5 67.9 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.5 13.9 1.1 70.1 67.4 11.6 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.7 14.2 1.1 69.5 67.8 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.0 12.9 1.2 72.5 69.7 11.0 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.1 15.8 1.4 73.0 70.7 11.6 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.1 11.1 11.5 1.0 69.0 66.6 9.3 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.6 15.8 1.2 70.6 68.5 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 6.3 6.8 9.7 0.8 63.7 62.0 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.9 15.0 1.3 71.2 69.1 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.2 15.6 1.3 71.5 69.3 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 13.3 13.3 15.4 1.2 70.4 68.1 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.9 12.9 13.6 1.1 70.3 67.9 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.3 14.4 1.3 71.5 69.5 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 10.6 11.3 12.1 0.9 67.0 65.0 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.8 15.1 1.3 71.4 69.5 11.1 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 11.7 11.8 14.0 1.1 70.5 68.4 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 9.9 9.8 10.8 0.9 67.2 65.0 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.8 13.9 16.0 1.3 70.5 68.6 11.4 12.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------