***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 12.3 12.7 15.2 -0.7 37.6 41.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.3 12.9 15.3 -0.6 39.5 43.4 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.2 15.0 -0.7 36.6 41.4 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.1 13.0 -0.8 34.7 38.7 9.0 10.0 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.3 12.9 -0.7 35.1 39.9 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.4 11.2 -0.6 37.5 40.8 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.1 15.4 -0.5 40.1 43.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.4 4.8 11.0 -0.7 34.5 39.9 4.7 5.5 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.3 13.2 -0.7 35.7 41.0 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 12.0 12.3 11.7 -0.6 36.1 41.4 12.1 12.8 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.0 12.4 -0.7 34.9 39.6 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.2 11.8 -0.8 32.5 37.7 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 11.4 11.6 11.5 -0.7 34.0 37.9 11.6 12.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 12.6 12.9 13.3 -0.6 36.5 42.0 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.5 -0.8 34.2 37.8 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 12.0 12.3 12.2 -0.7 34.1 38.2 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.5 15.2 -0.4 43.2 46.3 12.9 13.8 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.0 11.0 -0.6 36.3 41.6 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.0 15.2 -0.6 38.8 43.2 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.5 6.8 9.2 -0.7 34.6 39.8 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.3 14.3 -0.7 35.6 40.7 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.7 15.0 -0.4 41.3 45.3 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.5 14.8 -0.6 37.7 42.6 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.2 13.0 -0.6 36.5 41.8 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.5 13.6 -0.6 37.7 41.1 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 10.9 11.1 11.5 -0.8 32.7 36.4 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.7 14.4 -0.6 38.5 41.8 12.3 13.3 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.3 13.3 -0.8 33.5 37.5 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.9 9.3 10.3 -0.6 35.9 41.3 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.2 15.3 -0.6 38.1 42.3 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------