***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 15.0 14.9 16.6 0.1 52.4 52.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.4 16.6 0.1 52.0 51.9 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.1 16.4 0.1 51.7 51.7 14.8 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.2 14.4 0.0 49.6 50.0 9.9 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.9 14.3 0.0 50.4 50.6 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.7 12.5 0.0 50.1 50.1 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 14.8 14.7 16.7 0.2 53.0 52.9 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.5 12.2 -0.1 48.2 48.6 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.0 14.6 0.1 51.4 51.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.0 13.7 12.9 0.0 50.9 50.9 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.6 13.8 0.0 49.1 49.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 13.1 -0.2 45.7 46.4 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.0 12.8 -0.2 46.4 46.8 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.4 14.5 0.0 50.0 50.0 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.7 14.9 -0.1 48.8 49.3 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.9 13.5 -0.1 47.9 48.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.0 16.5 0.2 53.9 53.5 13.8 14.8 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 12.6 12.4 12.2 0.0 50.7 50.5 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.4 16.5 0.1 51.6 51.5 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.0 10.4 -0.1 49.0 48.9 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.2 13.9 15.7 0.1 51.1 51.2 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.1 16.3 0.1 52.0 51.8 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.0 16.1 0.0 50.9 50.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.9 14.3 0.0 51.0 50.9 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.0 15.0 0.1 51.5 51.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.3 12.8 -0.3 44.6 45.5 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.3 15.8 0.1 52.6 52.6 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.8 14.7 -0.1 48.8 49.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.0 10.7 11.5 0.0 50.5 50.2 9.5 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.7 16.7 0.1 51.8 51.8 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------