***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 13.3 13.3 15.2 0.1 53.7 53.4 12.7 13.2 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.3 15.3 0.3 56.9 55.9 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 14.9 14.8 15.0 0.1 53.2 52.9 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 9.8 9.8 13.2 0.1 54.3 53.9 9.0 9.7 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.6 13.0 0.1 52.6 52.4 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.6 10.5 11.2 0.1 52.4 52.1 10.0 10.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 13.3 13.4 15.4 0.3 57.1 56.1 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.1 10.9 -0.1 47.9 48.3 4.7 5.2 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.6 13.3 0.0 49.7 50.2 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.4 11.6 0.0 48.5 49.0 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.2 12.5 0.0 50.4 50.4 11.8 12.2 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.3 11.7 -0.1 46.7 47.2 10.0 10.4 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.7 11.4 -0.1 45.8 46.3 11.4 11.8 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.2 13.2 0.0 50.6 50.3 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.3 13.6 -0.2 44.7 45.7 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.8 12.6 12.2 0.0 50.1 50.2 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.8 15.2 0.4 60.8 59.2 12.9 13.4 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 10.7 -0.1 47.1 47.7 10.5 11.1 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.3 15.2 0.2 56.2 55.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.8 8.9 -0.2 44.5 45.2 6.5 7.0 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.6 14.4 0.0 51.0 51.2 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 12.8 12.9 15.0 0.3 58.2 57.0 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 12.9 12.9 14.8 0.2 54.6 53.9 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.6 12.9 0.0 50.0 50.0 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.9 13.7 0.1 52.5 52.5 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.2 11.5 -0.1 47.5 48.0 10.8 11.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.1 14.5 0.1 53.0 52.8 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 11.7 11.5 13.4 0.0 49.5 49.7 11.1 11.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.3 10.1 -0.1 47.5 47.9 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.5 15.4 0.2 55.4 54.7 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------