***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 24.9 24.8 25.5 0.2 52.9 52.6 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 25.0 24.7 25.4 0.0 50.6 50.8 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 25.0 24.7 25.4 0.0 50.1 50.2 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 17.5 17.2 23.8 0.1 51.2 51.2 15.7 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 25.2 25.0 23.8 0.2 51.8 51.8 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 23.2 23.3 21.9 0.4 54.5 53.9 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 24.6 24.5 25.5 0.3 53.1 52.9 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.4 22.2 0.2 51.9 51.8 10.8 12.3 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 24.7 24.4 24.2 0.1 51.3 51.4 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 24.4 24.1 22.9 0.1 51.3 51.3 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 24.8 24.6 23.3 0.2 51.9 51.9 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 23.6 23.4 23.0 0.1 51.3 51.4 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 24.7 24.4 22.5 0.1 51.4 51.5 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.8 24.2 23.7 -0.2 48.1 48.5 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 25.4 25.0 24.0 -0.1 49.3 49.4 23.8 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 25.3 25.1 23.0 0.1 51.6 51.6 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 24.3 24.2 25.2 0.2 52.3 52.3 22.7 24.0 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 23.9 23.5 22.2 0.0 50.3 50.3 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 24.6 24.1 25.3 -0.1 49.1 49.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 19.1 18.7 20.1 0.1 51.2 51.0 17.0 18.6 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 24.9 24.6 24.9 0.1 51.3 51.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 24.9 24.5 25.0 0.0 49.5 50.0 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 25.0 24.4 25.0 -0.2 47.9 48.5 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.4 23.9 23.7 -0.1 49.2 49.4 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 24.9 24.8 24.1 0.2 53.0 52.7 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 24.1 23.8 22.4 0.1 51.5 51.4 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 24.6 24.6 24.8 0.3 53.7 53.3 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 25.3 25.0 23.8 0.0 50.0 50.1 23.8 25.0 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.1 18.6 21.2 0.0 50.4 50.3 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 24.9 24.6 25.5 0.1 50.7 50.8 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------