***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.9 23.2 25.2 -1.3 33.1 38.0 23.2 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 23.3 23.7 25.2 -1.2 33.1 37.8 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 23.2 23.6 25.2 -1.3 32.3 37.4 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 16.2 16.3 23.4 -1.6 28.5 34.2 16.6 17.9 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 23.9 24.1 23.4 -1.5 30.2 35.8 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 22.7 22.9 21.2 -1.4 30.7 36.1 23.1 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 23.0 23.5 25.3 -1.1 34.9 39.3 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 11.8 12.1 21.7 -1.5 29.7 35.6 12.3 13.5 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 23.1 23.4 23.8 -1.4 31.4 36.9 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 22.9 23.3 22.5 -1.4 31.2 36.7 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 23.7 23.9 22.9 -1.5 30.0 35.6 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 22.7 22.8 22.5 -1.6 28.1 34.2 23.2 24.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 24.0 24.1 21.9 -1.7 27.9 34.0 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 23.2 23.6 23.6 -1.2 34.1 39.1 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 24.2 24.2 23.6 -1.7 26.9 32.5 24.6 25.8 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 24.6 24.7 22.5 -1.6 28.8 34.7 25.0 26.1 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.4 25.1 -1.1 34.8 39.3 23.2 24.7 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 22.5 22.9 21.9 -1.3 32.7 38.0 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.1 25.2 -1.3 32.4 37.3 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 18.0 18.4 19.7 -1.4 30.8 36.6 18.6 19.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 23.2 23.4 24.6 -1.4 31.5 36.8 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 23.3 23.8 25.0 -1.2 33.6 38.4 23.7 25.3 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 23.2 23.6 24.9 -1.3 32.6 37.5 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.2 23.5 -1.3 33.4 38.4 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 23.5 23.7 23.7 -1.4 31.4 36.6 23.8 25.2 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 23.6 23.7 21.8 -1.7 27.4 33.4 24.1 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 23.2 23.5 24.5 -1.3 33.0 38.0 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 24.2 24.2 23.5 -1.7 27.5 33.3 24.6 25.8 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 17.6 18.2 20.8 -1.3 32.9 38.2 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.2 23.5 25.3 -1.3 32.8 37.6 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------