***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.2 26.7 -0.5 44.1 45.4 25.1 26.7 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.9 25.8 26.7 -0.5 43.9 45.0 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.6 26.6 -0.6 42.5 44.0 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.2 18.7 24.9 -0.8 39.3 41.5 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.0 24.9 -0.7 41.0 43.1 25.2 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.8 24.6 22.7 -0.6 42.1 43.4 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.6 26.7 -0.4 45.7 46.5 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.1 23.3 -0.6 42.4 44.0 13.2 14.7 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.3 25.2 -0.7 41.7 43.6 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.3 23.9 -0.6 42.3 44.0 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.1 25.8 24.4 -0.6 41.5 43.4 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.1 24.7 24.1 -0.7 41.4 43.1 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 27.2 25.8 23.5 -0.7 40.4 42.2 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.4 24.9 -0.5 43.8 44.9 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 28.0 26.5 25.3 -1.0 37.1 39.2 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 27.8 26.4 24.1 -0.7 40.6 42.5 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.3 25.3 26.5 -0.4 45.0 45.9 24.2 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.0 24.9 23.3 -0.5 43.8 45.1 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.1 26.6 -0.6 43.0 44.2 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.5 20.4 21.2 -0.5 43.5 44.6 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.6 26.1 -0.7 41.7 43.5 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.7 25.5 26.3 -0.5 43.6 44.7 24.6 26.1 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.4 26.3 -0.6 42.7 43.9 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.0 24.9 -0.5 43.4 44.8 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.2 26.0 25.2 -0.6 42.4 44.0 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 24.5 25.4 23.3 -0.8 39.3 41.3 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.7 25.9 -0.4 44.5 45.7 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.6 25.0 -0.9 38.1 40.2 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.1 22.3 -0.4 44.5 45.6 18.9 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.5 26.8 -0.5 43.7 44.8 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------