***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 25.0 24.8 25.7 0.0 50.6 50.2 23.9 24.8 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 25.2 24.9 25.7 0.0 49.4 49.2 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 25.1 24.9 25.7 -0.1 48.8 48.6 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 18.0 17.5 23.7 -0.3 44.0 44.4 17.0 17.8 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 25.5 25.1 24.0 -0.2 47.1 47.2 24.5 25.3 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 24.0 23.5 21.6 -0.2 45.5 46.0 22.9 23.7 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 24.8 24.7 25.7 0.1 52.0 51.5 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.0 22.2 -0.2 46.8 47.0 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 24.8 24.5 24.5 -0.1 48.5 48.5 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.4 23.1 -0.1 48.0 48.0 23.7 24.5 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 25.2 24.8 23.5 -0.2 46.9 47.1 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.7 23.0 -0.3 44.7 45.2 23.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 25.3 24.8 22.5 -0.3 43.7 44.4 24.3 25.0 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 24.9 24.8 24.2 0.0 50.8 50.5 23.9 24.7 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.2 24.3 -0.5 40.9 41.6 24.9 25.6 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 25.8 25.4 23.1 -0.3 44.8 45.3 24.8 25.6 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 24.6 24.5 25.5 0.1 51.8 51.5 23.5 24.4 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 24.2 24.0 22.4 0.0 49.5 49.2 23.3 24.0 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.7 24.4 25.6 -0.1 48.4 48.4 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.6 19.3 20.3 -0.1 47.8 47.6 18.5 19.4 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 25.0 24.8 25.3 -0.1 48.8 48.6 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 25.1 24.9 25.4 0.0 50.2 50.0 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 25.0 24.8 25.4 -0.1 48.5 48.4 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 24.5 24.3 24.1 0.0 50.1 49.8 23.5 24.3 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 25.2 24.9 24.3 -0.1 49.0 48.9 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.2 22.2 -0.4 42.1 43.0 23.8 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 24.8 24.7 25.0 0.1 51.1 50.7 23.9 24.7 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 25.9 25.3 23.9 -0.4 41.8 42.4 24.9 25.6 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 19.4 19.2 21.5 0.0 50.2 49.8 18.3 19.2 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 25.0 24.7 25.8 0.0 49.2 49.0 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------