***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 6.3 9.2 8.9 47.5 37.6 29.8 7.8 13.4 20.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 4.4 6.3 7.6 46.9 35.2 28.0 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 5.9 7.2 7.3 42.0 31.7 26.0 7.5 12.4 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 8.5 11.7 10.9 56.0 40.7 34.3 9.2 15.0 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 8.2 10.7 9.3 49.1 36.9 30.8 9.3 15.9 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.5 7.6 10.0 51.4 36.9 32.7 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 3.1 4.8 8.0 46.1 34.8 27.8 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.7 10.9 9.1 53.2 38.2 33.8 9.0 16.4 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.7 7.0 9.6 50.6 37.7 32.9 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 8.3 10.0 9.7 48.9 35.2 30.8 9.3 15.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.8 6.9 7.7 46.1 34.8 29.6 6.4 10.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 6.1 8.0 7.6 52.5 39.5 34.5 6.4 11.1 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.4 5.5 8.2 48.9 35.4 31.0 4.9 9.4 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 5.9 4.8 5.5 27.2 20.1 18.3 8.3 14.0 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 8.0 11.2 63.2 45.9 40.4 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.8 7.1 8.4 49.8 37.7 32.8 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 3.7 5.2 6.7 41.7 33.7 27.0 5.0 8.8 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 5.9 6.5 9.6 45.1 32.0 28.8 6.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 5.8 8.2 8.5 53.1 38.6 31.9 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.2 8.5 9.9 53.0 36.8 33.6 7.5 12.3 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 5.8 6.7 7.9 43.3 31.6 26.7 7.1 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 5.6 7.6 7.7 50.3 38.7 32.3 6.5 9.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.9 6.3 8.8 54.5 38.8 33.6 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 5.5 5.5 7.8 38.1 26.9 24.1 7.1 12.4 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 5.6 6.6 10.9 48.9 35.0 30.0 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 4.8 5.4 6.7 44.8 33.8 30.2 5.2 9.2 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 7.3 9.9 11.2 52.0 38.2 31.8 8.4 13.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.4 10.5 10.8 62.1 45.0 38.8 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 9.4 9.8 9.2 44.5 31.2 28.6 10.5 17.9 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 4.6 6.3 7.7 45.7 34.2 27.3 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------