***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 18.3 32.1 26.4 237.0 88.9 73.7 5.0 9.1 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 19.8 33.1 23.4 214.1 86.7 73.1 4.1 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.4 27.2 23.3 202.1 85.1 70.9 6.2 10.4 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 23.2 33.9 30.8 206.6 85.6 73.5 8.4 13.6 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 16.0 23.4 29.0 195.3 84.2 71.8 5.1 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 22.5 27.8 38.4 167.5 80.7 72.2 9.0 13.8 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 18.5 31.3 24.4 222.2 87.6 73.9 3.2 7.4 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 37.4 47.3 29.6 176.0 82.0 72.0 13.2 21.2 31.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 16.5 23.4 29.8 207.1 85.5 73.2 6.2 9.8 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 21.7 28.5 32.0 186.9 83.3 72.7 7.8 12.5 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 19.1 24.6 24.7 173.7 81.3 70.2 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 18.8 23.6 24.3 171.3 81.1 70.7 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 19.4 25.3 29.9 165.7 80.4 70.5 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 30.4 41.8 26.5 180.3 82.4 67.5 8.7 15.6 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 22.2 34.9 30.6 217.8 86.7 74.8 6.1 11.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 19.4 25.0 27.1 167.3 80.5 70.6 6.5 10.9 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 18.0 30.2 22.5 219.8 87.1 72.9 3.9 7.9 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 25.3 32.4 35.0 174.9 81.7 72.7 8.9 14.4 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 17.3 29.5 23.1 208.8 86.1 72.8 3.5 7.6 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 24.0 30.1 34.7 162.2 79.9 71.1 7.6 13.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.3 22.3 25.6 216.9 86.6 72.0 5.9 9.1 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 24.4 44.4 22.8 219.0 87.2 73.1 4.5 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 18.0 28.9 23.3 201.6 85.2 71.4 4.7 9.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 26.5 34.9 28.4 176.9 81.9 70.7 8.8 14.8 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 18.2 28.8 33.4 238.4 88.9 76.9 6.0 9.8 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 18.8 27.7 26.5 184.0 83.5 71.0 5.4 9.8 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 16.7 28.8 32.7 246.0 89.8 77.6 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 18.5 25.3 30.1 199.6 84.7 72.7 7.6 11.5 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 30.6 38.4 33.8 166.9 80.5 71.4 11.0 17.7 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 18.5 30.1 24.0 214.8 86.9 72.8 4.3 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------