***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.9 30.0 16.2 131.5 73.3 56.1 8.5 15.2 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.5 28.3 16.8 129.0 72.7 56.9 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.6 32.5 16.4 118.9 69.8 56.2 10.8 18.7 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 31.6 36.2 21.9 137.1 74.7 62.4 9.9 17.6 28.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.0 25.8 20.0 132.7 73.6 61.5 9.7 15.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 22.6 24.7 30.0 134.1 73.8 63.7 7.3 12.8 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.7 27.3 17.4 140.6 75.4 59.2 8.9 14.4 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 36.6 39.1 22.0 132.5 73.3 63.8 15.7 23.6 33.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 18.6 25.7 18.3 121.9 70.9 58.0 10.1 15.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 18.2 24.5 22.3 123.3 70.9 60.7 10.0 15.4 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.0 23.0 17.1 127.8 72.4 61.6 8.1 13.1 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 21.7 24.5 17.4 137.4 74.7 64.4 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 21.7 25.3 23.9 141.0 75.6 65.7 7.2 12.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 26.9 35.9 22.4 115.3 68.8 55.8 12.6 21.7 33.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 21.9 24.4 19.8 130.4 73.3 59.6 6.3 11.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 18.3 21.2 20.8 137.2 74.7 63.7 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.7 34.4 16.0 129.2 72.8 57.0 9.8 17.8 28.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.5 30.2 26.8 120.9 69.9 59.9 13.8 20.2 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.2 33.0 16.5 123.6 71.4 56.0 8.7 16.6 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 23.8 25.3 29.0 128.4 72.2 63.4 7.5 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.1 22.9 15.3 116.9 69.4 55.0 8.1 13.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 20.8 31.3 15.5 126.0 72.2 58.0 9.1 16.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.8 23.7 17.3 119.5 70.2 54.8 7.2 13.0 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.1 30.0 22.0 114.7 68.2 56.8 14.0 20.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 20.0 29.3 21.4 131.7 73.3 59.7 9.3 15.8 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 18.8 20.6 19.7 139.9 75.3 65.8 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.0 30.3 20.4 137.4 74.7 59.7 8.1 14.7 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 17.1 18.8 21.0 134.5 74.2 61.5 6.3 10.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.0 32.5 27.0 120.9 70.1 60.7 12.4 20.0 29.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 20.6 29.2 16.9 128.0 72.5 57.5 10.2 16.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------