***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 24.3 32.3 14.2 157.4 78.9 63.1 5.8 11.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.0 25.0 12.3 118.3 69.8 55.0 10.0 15.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 29.6 31.9 13.2 130.1 72.9 57.8 6.8 14.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.6 29.7 16.1 133.4 74.0 58.3 8.1 14.6 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.4 22.5 15.5 129.7 73.1 56.4 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 22.4 26.4 23.4 141.6 75.7 62.8 6.9 12.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.0 22.4 13.5 129.9 73.0 58.1 6.6 11.5 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 20.0 28.5 18.3 125.0 71.6 56.2 10.2 16.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.1 24.0 15.6 131.2 73.2 56.4 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.8 28.4 19.0 125.2 71.6 56.0 7.8 14.5 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.6 23.5 14.5 137.0 74.6 56.1 6.1 11.3 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.4 19.6 14.5 134.0 74.0 56.2 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 18.9 23.3 18.9 150.1 77.5 61.8 4.7 9.4 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.0 22.0 16.9 113.5 67.9 53.5 7.6 13.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.2 20.5 15.4 152.3 77.9 60.3 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.0 19.1 16.5 143.6 76.2 60.1 4.7 8.6 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.7 24.0 11.8 119.0 70.2 54.4 7.9 13.7 21.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.2 23.1 22.4 121.8 70.5 56.4 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.5 27.0 11.9 112.5 68.0 52.2 10.7 17.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 16.2 24.5 23.5 123.8 71.2 57.4 6.9 12.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.7 27.3 13.8 141.9 75.7 57.6 7.3 12.9 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.2 23.2 12.1 117.4 69.5 52.4 9.6 14.9 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.7 19.1 12.2 106.6 65.8 50.1 7.5 12.6 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.6 25.7 17.9 119.1 69.6 55.4 7.8 14.3 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.1 29.1 18.0 153.3 78.1 63.3 6.9 12.7 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.0 21.9 14.2 133.4 74.1 60.6 3.9 8.6 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 23.3 32.4 17.5 161.2 79.7 64.8 6.3 12.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.3 23.0 15.6 136.5 74.7 58.4 5.1 10.1 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.4 30.9 22.6 121.2 70.4 55.5 9.7 17.2 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 21.4 29.4 12.9 125.4 71.7 57.4 10.8 17.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------