***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 75.9 95.1 65.6 128.4 72.8 61.8 54.4 69.6 86.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 72.3 81.5 60.2 118.7 68.7 59.1 57.6 68.1 79.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 84.6 94.7 60.2 113.9 66.2 57.4 62.5 77.8 94.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 102.8 107.9 79.7 127.6 72.7 63.5 62.2 79.2 97.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 73.2 83.7 73.9 121.3 69.8 60.8 57.1 68.2 80.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 84.5 86.9 101.8 125.3 72.2 64.5 54.2 67.1 80.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 63.3 78.3 63.3 123.9 71.1 61.9 44.6 58.0 72.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 107.0 120.8 79.0 120.8 70.0 62.5 86.9 101.2 116.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 69.7 77.9 73.3 121.6 69.9 60.7 56.3 65.6 75.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 80.5 91.7 82.9 118.0 68.5 60.7 59.7 73.9 89.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 65.9 72.9 64.1 116.4 67.6 60.1 53.0 62.2 71.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 63.2 74.3 63.8 121.9 70.2 62.5 47.7 58.7 70.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 73.6 76.4 80.8 125.7 72.1 64.2 49.3 59.9 71.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 96.0 97.5 71.3 102.5 59.4 51.7 75.1 89.0 104.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 77.7 82.8 77.0 134.4 75.1 66.4 41.9 56.0 71.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 69.6 70.8 72.7 121.8 70.1 62.8 43.7 55.0 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 71.1 85.5 57.0 117.2 67.9 58.2 45.7 63.1 82.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 80.8 88.0 93.8 114.3 66.6 59.2 65.5 76.3 87.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 81.6 93.3 60.0 117.7 68.2 58.9 62.9 76.5 91.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 77.0 85.4 97.1 118.9 69.5 61.2 63.4 73.0 82.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 68.8 78.4 62.7 118.1 68.3 57.8 51.1 63.2 76.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 76.4 89.2 58.1 120.2 69.3 59.0 54.5 69.3 85.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 65.4 73.0 61.6 114.9 66.7 57.7 52.9 62.5 72.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 87.9 92.2 76.1 107.4 62.6 55.5 71.0 82.7 95.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 85.1 89.0 83.6 130.3 74.0 64.1 52.6 65.7 80.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 71.3 74.1 67.2 123.9 71.4 62.6 41.1 53.9 68.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 87.3 94.4 81.7 135.1 76.0 65.8 54.8 68.3 82.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 71.6 74.4 77.5 129.9 73.4 64.9 47.6 57.7 68.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 103.7 112.0 92.6 112.9 65.8 58.2 84.0 97.8 112.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 76.1 87.0 61.5 119.3 69.0 59.7 60.2 72.0 84.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------