***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 11.7 13.4 -0.2 47.1 47.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.3 12.7 -0.7 37.5 39.2 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.3 13.1 -0.3 43.4 44.5 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 8.9 8.5 11.6 0.0 49.3 49.7 7.4 8.5 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.6 11.6 -0.1 46.6 47.4 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.7 9.6 0.1 53.6 53.3 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.3 11.5 12.8 -0.6 38.8 40.2 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.5 8.6 -0.7 34.9 37.1 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.2 11.7 -0.3 43.2 44.3 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.8 9.7 -0.6 36.6 38.4 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.7 10.9 10.6 -0.5 39.2 41.0 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.9 9.5 -0.6 37.8 39.6 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.8 10.0 -0.1 48.4 48.9 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.1 -0.8 32.9 35.4 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.9 13.2 0.3 56.4 55.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.7 10.7 -0.1 48.0 48.7 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.5 12.2 -0.9 33.8 35.5 11.4 12.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.2 8.6 -0.8 32.6 34.7 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.6 12.7 -0.6 38.8 40.5 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.0 5.1 6.3 -1.0 27.7 30.2 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.3 12.9 -0.2 45.0 45.8 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.7 12.1 -0.9 32.6 34.5 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.3 12.7 -0.4 41.7 43.2 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.0 10.9 -0.6 36.6 38.5 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.8 12.5 -0.1 47.6 48.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.8 10.0 0.4 58.6 57.8 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.2 11.8 13.0 -0.1 47.8 48.4 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 10.9 10.9 12.3 0.2 54.2 53.9 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.1 7.2 7.7 -0.9 29.1 31.8 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.5 11.7 13.1 -0.5 41.0 42.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------