***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 11.6 13.5 -1.2 29.4 34.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 11.1 11.1 13.4 -1.2 28.7 33.3 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 12.9 12.9 13.3 -1.2 29.0 33.9 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.6 7.5 11.6 -1.2 28.0 33.2 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.7 9.6 11.3 -1.3 26.6 32.4 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 8.7 8.7 9.5 -1.2 27.3 32.6 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.4 11.3 13.4 -1.2 29.3 34.0 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.0 2.6 9.2 -1.5 21.0 27.7 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 10.8 10.8 11.7 -1.2 26.7 32.6 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 10.7 10.5 10.0 -1.4 23.1 29.9 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 10.4 10.3 10.8 -1.3 25.8 32.0 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 8.6 8.3 10.1 -1.4 23.5 29.4 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 9.9 9.8 9.7 -1.3 25.7 31.1 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 11.4 11.2 11.5 -1.4 22.8 28.9 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 11.9 12.1 12.4 -0.9 32.5 36.8 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.7 10.7 10.5 -1.2 27.3 32.8 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.6 11.5 13.1 -1.3 28.9 33.2 11.8 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 9.1 8.8 9.2 -1.5 20.9 28.0 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 11.2 11.2 13.4 -1.2 28.6 33.2 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 4.9 4.5 7.2 -1.9 17.2 23.7 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 10.8 10.8 12.7 -1.2 28.1 33.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.9 10.8 13.0 -1.3 27.3 31.6 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.8 10.8 13.1 -1.2 28.0 32.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 10.7 10.5 11.3 -1.3 24.2 30.5 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.9 10.7 11.9 -1.3 26.5 31.9 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 9.3 9.1 9.5 -1.5 21.9 26.8 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.9 10.8 12.7 -1.3 27.8 33.0 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.0 11.9 -1.0 30.5 35.3 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 7.1 6.7 8.4 -1.6 19.5 26.4 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.4 11.3 13.5 -1.2 29.0 33.7 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------