***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 13.4 15.2 -0.4 41.3 43.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.0 15.1 -0.6 38.0 41.0 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.7 15.1 -0.5 40.2 42.8 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.6 13.2 -0.5 38.7 41.6 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.5 13.0 -0.6 38.3 41.1 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.6 11.0 -0.5 39.1 42.3 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.2 15.1 -0.6 37.8 40.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.9 10.9 -0.8 33.3 37.0 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.5 13.3 -0.6 37.9 40.8 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.3 11.7 -0.7 35.0 38.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.3 12.5 -0.5 39.4 42.1 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.5 11.8 -0.6 36.1 39.4 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.9 11.4 -0.4 39.8 42.8 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.1 13.3 -0.6 36.4 39.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.4 14.0 -0.4 41.3 43.8 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.7 12.2 -0.4 40.7 43.3 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 12.8 13.3 14.7 -0.8 35.9 39.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.0 10.9 -0.8 33.4 37.0 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.1 -0.6 39.0 41.9 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.7 6.8 9.0 -0.9 31.7 35.4 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.4 12.7 14.4 -0.5 39.6 42.1 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.6 14.6 -0.7 36.1 39.4 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.8 14.8 -0.5 39.9 42.8 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.4 13.0 -0.6 36.4 39.8 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.8 13.7 -0.5 39.2 42.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.4 11.5 -0.5 37.9 40.8 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.0 14.5 -0.5 40.3 42.9 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.7 13.5 -0.4 40.6 43.2 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.2 10.1 -0.8 33.1 36.8 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.4 15.2 -0.6 39.2 42.0 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------