***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 12.8 14.5 -0.5 34.8 37.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 12.3 12.4 14.2 -0.8 29.7 32.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.2 14.3 -0.6 33.2 36.2 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.0 9.1 12.6 -0.5 33.4 36.7 9.1 9.7 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.2 12.4 -0.6 32.0 35.6 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.2 10.5 -0.5 35.0 37.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 12.6 12.6 14.3 -0.7 30.2 33.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 4.5 4.5 10.1 -0.9 24.2 28.5 4.8 5.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 12.1 12.1 12.7 -0.6 30.8 34.7 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 11.9 11.9 10.9 -0.8 26.0 30.4 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 11.8 11.8 11.8 -0.6 30.4 34.2 11.9 12.3 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 9.9 9.9 11.0 -0.7 27.6 31.3 10.1 10.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 11.4 11.5 10.8 -0.5 33.0 35.7 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 12.5 12.5 12.4 -0.9 24.9 28.8 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.3 13.6 -0.3 39.2 41.3 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.3 11.6 -0.5 34.0 37.0 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.7 13.9 -0.9 27.0 30.4 12.9 13.5 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 10.4 10.3 10.1 -0.9 22.8 27.3 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 12.5 12.6 14.2 -0.7 30.8 33.9 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 6.3 6.2 8.0 -1.1 19.3 23.6 6.6 7.1 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.2 13.8 -0.6 32.7 36.3 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.0 13.8 -0.9 26.2 29.5 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.2 14.0 -0.6 32.1 35.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 11.9 11.9 12.2 -0.8 26.9 30.9 12.1 12.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.3 13.1 -0.6 32.4 35.9 12.3 12.8 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 10.9 10.9 10.8 -0.5 33.3 35.5 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.4 13.8 -0.6 33.5 36.7 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 11.1 11.3 13.0 -0.4 37.0 39.6 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 8.7 8.6 9.3 -1.0 21.3 25.6 9.0 9.5 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 12.6 12.8 14.4 -0.7 31.7 34.7 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------