***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 23.4 22.8 -0.7 40.6 42.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 22.3 22.5 22.0 -1.3 31.7 35.5 22.6 23.8 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.1 22.7 22.5 -1.0 36.6 39.5 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.0 21.0 -0.4 44.6 45.5 15.0 16.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.1 21.3 -0.7 41.2 42.7 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 22.9 22.4 19.6 0.0 50.1 50.0 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.9 22.1 21.9 -1.4 31.3 35.0 22.3 23.5 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.2 19.2 -0.9 38.8 40.5 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 23.9 22.2 21.9 -0.9 38.1 40.3 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 23.8 22.3 20.1 -0.9 38.1 40.1 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.0 22.8 21.1 -0.6 42.3 43.5 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 21.8 20.2 -0.6 42.2 43.2 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.4 20.6 -0.2 47.5 47.6 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 22.0 22.1 20.7 -1.6 29.3 33.2 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.2 23.0 0.0 49.8 50.0 23.0 24.3 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.7 23.8 21.1 -0.3 46.3 46.8 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 21.6 21.4 21.2 -1.8 25.8 30.0 22.0 23.3 24.4 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.2 21.6 18.9 -1.3 33.3 36.1 21.6 22.8 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.9 22.1 22.1 -1.3 32.4 36.1 22.2 23.4 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 16.2 16.6 16.7 -1.4 31.9 34.5 16.7 18.1 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.5 22.5 -1.0 37.6 40.0 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 22.0 21.9 21.2 -1.8 25.5 29.8 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.2 22.5 22.0 -1.3 32.9 36.6 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 21.5 21.8 20.7 -1.4 32.2 35.4 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 24.2 22.8 21.6 -0.7 40.0 42.2 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.5 22.7 19.8 -0.3 45.8 46.3 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.5 22.0 -0.8 38.5 41.2 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.1 22.0 -0.1 48.5 48.7 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 16.2 16.6 18.0 -1.5 31.9 34.9 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 22.1 22.5 22.4 -1.1 35.0 38.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------