***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 9999.0 22.2 22.4 -2.3 21.7 26.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 22.4 22.2 22.3 -2.4 22.1 26.9 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 22.1 22.0 22.3 -2.5 21.3 26.1 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 14.6 14.4 20.5 -2.7 19.0 23.6 15.7 17.1 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 22.2 22.0 20.3 -2.8 18.2 23.0 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 20.3 20.3 18.0 -2.6 20.3 24.4 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 22.1 21.9 22.3 -2.3 22.5 27.3 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 9.7 9.4 18.4 -2.9 18.2 22.7 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 21.6 21.3 20.6 -2.8 18.4 23.3 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 21.4 21.2 19.1 -2.9 18.1 22.8 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 21.9 21.8 19.7 -2.7 19.0 23.6 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 20.9 20.7 19.3 -2.8 19.0 23.5 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 21.6 21.4 18.7 -2.8 18.9 23.4 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 21.7 21.6 20.5 -2.7 20.6 25.4 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 23.1 23.1 21.4 -2.2 22.7 26.6 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 22.2 22.0 19.4 -2.7 19.0 23.5 23.5 24.9 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 21.8 21.6 21.9 -2.4 21.7 26.7 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 20.8 20.5 18.4 -3.0 17.7 22.6 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 21.9 21.7 22.3 -2.4 22.2 26.9 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 15.7 15.3 16.1 -3.1 16.7 21.2 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 22.0 21.8 21.5 -2.7 19.2 24.2 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 22.1 21.9 21.9 -2.5 21.4 26.4 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 22.2 22.1 22.1 -2.4 22.4 27.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 21.3 21.2 20.3 -2.8 19.6 24.4 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 22.3 22.0 20.7 -2.6 19.2 24.1 23.3 24.6 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 21.3 21.1 18.5 -2.8 18.6 22.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 21.9 21.7 21.6 -2.4 20.7 25.7 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 22.9 22.8 20.8 -2.5 20.4 24.6 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 15.8 15.5 17.3 -3.0 17.5 22.3 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 22.2 22.1 22.5 -2.3 22.2 27.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------