***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 23.7 24.9 -0.8 39.8 41.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.6 24.3 24.6 -1.0 37.1 39.3 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 23.6 24.4 24.9 -0.9 38.4 40.5 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 16.4 17.1 23.2 -1.0 36.3 38.6 16.8 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 24.0 24.8 23.1 -1.1 36.0 38.4 24.5 25.9 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 23.0 23.6 20.7 -1.0 36.4 38.6 23.4 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.0 24.6 -1.0 37.3 39.5 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.2 12.6 21.1 -1.2 34.3 36.9 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 23.4 24.1 23.4 -1.1 36.3 38.6 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 23.3 23.8 21.9 -1.2 34.9 37.4 23.7 25.1 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 24.0 24.7 22.5 -1.1 36.2 38.6 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 23.0 23.5 22.1 -1.2 35.0 37.6 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 24.2 24.8 21.5 -1.2 34.9 37.5 24.7 25.9 27.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.4 24.0 23.0 -1.1 36.4 38.8 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 24.6 25.3 23.8 -0.8 38.5 40.5 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 24.7 25.4 22.2 -1.1 35.6 38.2 25.2 26.3 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 23.0 23.6 24.2 -1.2 35.1 37.6 23.4 25.0 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 22.7 23.3 21.1 -1.3 34.4 36.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 23.2 23.9 24.7 -1.0 37.6 39.8 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 18.3 18.8 18.8 -1.4 33.6 36.1 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 23.4 24.2 24.3 -1.0 37.5 39.7 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 23.7 24.2 24.2 -1.1 35.6 38.1 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.5 24.3 24.6 -0.9 38.2 40.5 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 22.8 23.6 22.9 -1.1 36.1 38.5 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.8 24.4 23.3 -0.9 37.4 39.5 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 23.9 24.3 21.3 -1.3 33.7 36.3 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 23.6 24.3 24.0 -0.8 38.5 40.5 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 24.5 25.2 23.4 -1.0 36.7 39.1 24.9 26.1 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 17.9 18.5 20.1 -1.3 34.7 37.1 18.3 19.7 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 23.4 24.3 24.8 -0.9 38.1 40.2 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------