***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 25.1 25.3 -0.8 40.2 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 24.6 25.3 25.1 -1.1 36.9 39.3 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 24.6 25.4 25.3 -0.9 38.9 40.8 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 18.1 18.9 23.8 -0.8 39.6 41.5 18.4 19.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 25.1 26.0 23.7 -0.9 39.3 41.2 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 23.6 24.7 21.5 -0.6 42.6 43.5 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 24.3 25.0 25.0 -1.0 37.6 39.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 13.0 14.0 21.9 -0.9 39.0 40.6 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 24.4 25.2 23.9 -0.9 38.9 40.8 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 24.4 25.1 22.5 -1.0 38.1 40.1 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.9 25.8 23.2 -0.8 40.5 42.1 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 23.9 24.9 22.9 -0.8 40.6 41.9 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 24.8 26.0 22.4 -0.7 41.4 42.4 25.3 26.7 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.9 23.4 -1.2 36.1 38.3 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 26.0 27.0 24.5 -0.6 42.1 43.5 26.3 27.6 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.6 26.6 22.9 -0.7 41.0 42.4 25.9 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 23.9 24.4 24.6 -1.2 35.0 37.6 24.2 25.6 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 23.6 24.4 21.6 -1.1 36.4 38.6 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 24.0 24.7 25.2 -1.1 37.2 39.4 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 19.0 19.9 19.5 -1.1 37.1 39.1 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 24.6 25.5 24.8 -0.9 39.3 41.1 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 24.2 24.7 24.6 -1.3 34.0 36.8 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 24.4 25.1 25.0 -1.0 37.7 39.7 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 24.0 24.7 23.4 -1.1 36.9 39.1 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 25.0 25.8 23.8 -0.8 39.1 41.0 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 24.6 25.5 22.3 -0.8 40.1 41.4 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 24.5 25.4 24.4 -0.8 39.2 41.0 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 26.0 26.9 24.1 -0.7 40.6 42.3 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 18.6 19.5 20.6 -1.1 36.5 38.7 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 24.3 25.1 25.3 -1.0 38.1 40.2 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------