***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 23.7 23.9 -1.1 28.0 31.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 23.7 23.8 23.5 -1.4 24.2 27.7 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 23.8 23.8 23.7 -1.3 25.6 29.2 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 16.7 16.8 22.1 -1.2 26.5 30.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 24.1 24.1 22.1 -1.4 24.5 28.4 24.6 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 22.8 22.9 20.0 -1.0 29.2 32.6 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 23.4 23.4 23.4 -1.4 24.4 27.9 23.9 24.7 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 12.1 12.0 20.1 -1.5 23.1 26.9 12.5 13.2 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 23.5 23.4 22.4 -1.4 23.5 27.4 23.9 24.7 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 23.4 23.3 20.9 -1.5 22.7 26.5 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 23.9 23.9 21.6 -1.3 25.7 29.5 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 22.9 22.9 21.2 -1.3 25.3 29.0 23.3 24.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 24.1 24.1 20.8 -1.2 27.0 30.6 24.4 25.1 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 23.6 23.4 21.9 -1.6 21.2 25.2 24.1 24.8 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 24.8 25.0 23.2 -0.9 31.7 34.9 25.0 25.7 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 24.6 24.6 21.4 -1.2 26.8 30.6 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 23.0 22.9 23.0 -1.7 21.2 24.7 23.6 24.5 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 22.9 22.8 20.0 -1.7 20.3 24.3 23.4 24.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 23.2 23.3 23.6 -1.4 24.6 28.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 18.1 17.9 17.8 -1.7 19.5 23.5 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 23.7 23.7 23.3 -1.4 24.4 28.3 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 23.5 23.4 23.0 -1.7 21.0 24.5 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 23.7 23.7 23.4 -1.4 24.8 28.4 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 23.2 23.1 21.8 -1.6 21.6 25.5 23.6 24.4 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 23.9 23.9 22.4 -1.3 25.3 29.2 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 23.6 23.6 20.5 -1.3 25.5 29.1 23.9 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 23.6 23.6 23.0 -1.2 26.1 29.9 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 24.7 24.8 22.6 -1.1 28.9 32.4 25.0 25.7 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 17.9 17.7 19.0 -1.7 19.7 23.9 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 23.6 23.7 23.7 -1.3 25.8 29.2 24.0 24.9 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------