***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 18.8 21.8 145.2 77.1 65.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 15.0 17.0 18.0 133.1 73.6 63.2 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.2 18.3 18.7 124.8 70.8 59.5 6.1 10.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.9 25.9 20.6 121.2 69.7 60.6 9.6 15.8 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 18.7 25.7 20.2 120.2 69.3 61.2 9.1 15.4 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.3 18.2 21.0 113.6 66.9 59.6 6.2 11.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.8 17.9 19.8 141.4 76.0 65.9 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 22.9 27.1 19.3 106.3 64.2 57.6 13.0 19.9 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.0 16.4 18.5 110.3 65.7 58.0 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.7 20.9 19.9 106.5 64.1 57.4 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.2 17.0 17.9 115.1 67.5 59.1 7.0 11.1 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.2 18.5 17.7 112.5 66.9 58.7 6.6 11.6 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 12.0 17.6 20.5 119.3 69.1 61.1 5.3 9.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.4 18.4 20.5 115.4 67.3 57.2 6.6 11.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 19.4 20.1 18.9 123.7 70.6 60.8 6.1 11.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.8 17.4 19.1 117.9 68.6 60.3 6.1 10.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 9.2 14.7 17.5 131.8 73.1 63.7 4.2 7.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 16.0 21.7 109.1 64.7 58.0 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.9 19.0 17.3 123.9 70.5 59.5 5.3 9.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.3 18.2 23.0 116.0 67.4 61.5 8.0 12.3 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.1 17.7 19.1 120.7 69.5 59.5 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.4 15.2 16.2 124.4 70.7 60.8 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.5 17.3 114.4 66.8 55.4 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.7 17.0 19.6 110.0 65.1 56.5 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 18.5 24.2 25.5 149.1 78.6 66.6 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.1 18.9 19.9 128.2 72.1 63.6 6.7 10.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 20.0 26.3 25.0 147.9 78.3 66.5 5.9 11.0 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.7 17.7 18.7 115.9 68.0 59.5 7.0 11.3 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 20.6 25.9 22.2 112.0 66.0 59.0 10.1 17.0 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.6 19.4 19.0 136.0 74.4 63.5 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------