***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 28.1 19.3 157.6 79.0 67.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 20.3 27.7 19.8 162.0 80.0 66.4 4.2 9.1 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 21.8 26.9 19.1 157.2 78.9 68.3 7.0 12.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.3 29.3 25.4 157.5 79.1 68.3 8.9 14.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.7 21.0 24.8 157.1 79.0 68.6 5.8 9.7 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 21.7 25.9 35.6 155.4 78.9 68.6 9.1 13.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 18.7 24.0 19.3 156.7 78.9 66.3 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 34.0 36.8 24.0 133.0 73.3 64.4 12.7 20.7 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 17.5 21.3 23.1 155.2 78.5 68.7 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 22.6 25.2 25.0 142.4 75.7 66.9 8.1 13.2 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 18.2 21.4 22.6 146.0 76.7 66.6 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 18.7 20.6 21.1 133.7 73.7 63.6 6.8 11.3 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 18.9 21.6 27.8 143.7 76.2 66.2 7.0 11.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 33.0 35.5 21.5 133.6 73.7 63.4 9.5 17.3 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.9 21.8 21.7 145.5 76.6 65.4 5.0 9.3 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 18.9 22.0 26.0 148.2 77.2 66.4 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 19.5 26.0 19.5 160.3 79.5 64.8 4.3 9.0 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 27.2 29.0 27.1 134.2 73.8 65.7 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 20.7 28.4 19.5 160.8 79.7 66.1 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 23.9 24.1 28.6 122.6 70.2 63.4 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 17.2 21.3 20.5 161.6 79.6 68.9 6.7 10.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 24.0 33.2 19.4 161.6 79.8 64.8 5.0 10.8 19.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 18.7 23.7 19.0 152.8 78.1 65.4 5.3 10.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 27.3 30.0 22.7 138.0 74.8 65.7 9.1 15.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 18.6 25.4 26.8 169.2 81.3 71.7 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 17.2 20.1 23.3 135.8 74.3 64.6 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.6 21.7 24.1 163.1 80.1 70.0 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 17.9 21.6 23.8 151.2 77.8 66.2 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 30.7 32.3 26.9 130.2 72.5 64.1 11.6 18.7 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 19.5 25.6 19.5 160.8 79.7 67.4 5.4 10.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------