***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 26.4 15.3 112.4 68.9 57.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 19.2 29.8 16.7 133.1 73.7 62.7 9.4 15.8 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 30.0 34.5 16.7 133.4 73.9 63.6 9.9 17.5 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 28.8 33.2 20.9 136.4 74.4 63.2 8.4 15.5 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 24.2 28.3 20.6 143.1 76.0 64.3 8.0 13.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 22.8 25.7 30.0 136.7 74.5 63.7 7.6 13.2 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.7 23.2 16.2 119.3 70.0 59.3 7.9 13.6 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 36.6 43.0 23.9 154.4 78.5 67.4 17.2 24.8 33.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 24.3 28.0 19.5 138.8 75.1 63.4 10.2 15.8 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 22.8 26.7 23.5 147.2 76.9 66.4 8.6 13.9 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 22.2 28.4 20.2 154.6 78.4 65.6 6.3 11.8 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 20.5 26.5 20.1 155.2 78.6 66.1 5.7 10.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 22.5 26.9 24.2 143.6 76.2 64.7 6.9 12.5 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 34.3 37.7 20.1 132.5 73.4 63.9 11.8 20.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.8 24.5 19.0 134.2 74.0 60.1 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 18.5 23.0 22.3 146.6 76.8 64.7 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 29.8 35.4 16.8 137.9 74.7 62.5 9.4 16.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 27.4 29.8 25.1 135.9 74.3 65.5 12.4 18.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 28.8 36.4 17.2 143.7 76.1 64.9 8.4 15.9 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.5 25.5 27.7 132.9 73.5 65.3 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 17.1 26.5 16.2 125.7 72.2 60.9 7.6 13.7 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 28.9 35.1 17.2 145.4 76.5 64.8 9.6 16.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 23.1 29.5 17.7 148.3 77.1 65.9 6.9 12.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.7 32.7 20.9 136.3 74.4 65.0 13.6 20.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 19.5 27.4 19.1 116.2 69.5 61.0 8.6 15.6 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 17.3 20.4 19.9 138.4 75.0 63.6 4.9 9.2 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 19.5 27.7 18.1 112.1 68.6 59.0 8.3 15.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 17.1 20.5 21.2 142.7 76.0 62.8 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 31.4 32.8 24.7 129.2 72.5 64.5 12.4 19.4 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 20.3 29.4 16.6 128.6 72.5 61.8 11.2 17.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------