***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 30.3 15.1 130.6 73.3 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.4 29.0 16.0 141.3 75.6 57.5 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.4 36.6 14.6 129.0 72.4 56.7 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 9.1 26.1 15.4 107.5 66.6 50.3 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.9 19.3 15.1 105.9 65.8 50.4 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.9 17.9 20.1 100.8 64.0 51.2 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.2 24.8 16.1 136.9 74.7 57.3 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.8 24.4 15.5 103.8 64.9 52.3 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.1 21.7 14.9 110.0 66.7 51.6 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 21.0 26.3 16.5 107.4 65.9 53.2 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.1 17.7 13.0 100.3 64.1 48.4 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.4 16.7 12.4 101.7 64.8 49.3 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.7 15.7 15.6 102.9 65.1 50.1 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 27.4 32.0 19.0 139.6 75.2 60.4 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.7 12.2 105.6 66.4 48.3 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.8 14.6 103.6 65.4 49.3 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.5 27.7 15.3 133.7 74.0 55.1 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 18.5 25.2 19.5 116.0 68.6 57.7 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.0 35.3 15.8 143.5 76.1 57.5 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 17.5 24.2 20.4 113.7 67.7 57.2 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.2 21.3 13.4 115.9 68.9 53.1 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.0 27.8 16.4 145.5 76.5 56.5 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.5 29.5 15.9 145.2 76.5 57.5 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.4 31.1 17.3 123.4 70.8 57.6 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 9.7 25.5 18.2 123.4 71.1 55.9 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.7 17.7 13.2 106.1 66.4 50.2 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.1 26.7 18.3 131.8 73.4 58.0 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.1 16.8 14.3 106.6 66.6 49.5 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 25.5 34.7 20.1 118.6 69.4 58.6 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.1 35.2 16.0 139.6 75.3 58.2 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------