***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 91.7 71.5 136.4 76.6 67.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 84.5 92.1 70.6 142.1 79.0 69.6 59.1 69.7 80.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 103.6 112.7 69.0 135.6 76.9 68.4 64.6 80.5 97.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 105.2 113.1 82.4 131.1 74.4 66.7 63.7 81.4 100.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 86.5 91.1 80.7 131.7 74.7 67.7 57.0 69.2 82.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 82.9 88.0 106.7 128.1 74.1 66.7 53.4 66.0 79.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 77.1 88.2 71.4 138.2 77.7 68.1 45.1 58.7 73.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 120.4 122.2 82.7 124.0 71.7 66.3 88.0 101.7 116.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 80.8 83.7 76.0 128.3 73.4 66.8 57.5 67.4 78.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 96.1 98.6 84.9 125.6 72.5 67.0 61.1 75.6 91.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 75.4 77.6 73.8 129.1 73.6 66.8 53.6 62.7 72.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 76.8 79.2 71.3 125.8 72.2 65.7 49.8 61.2 73.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 75.4 79.4 88.1 128.5 74.0 66.9 50.1 61.0 72.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 109.5 114.2 81.1 129.4 74.5 67.1 76.7 90.6 104.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 75.4 80.2 71.8 128.4 73.1 64.5 42.8 56.4 71.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 69.3 73.9 82.0 130.1 74.3 67.0 43.9 54.8 66.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 88.7 103.4 69.1 140.8 78.0 69.0 46.3 63.6 83.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 93.8 94.9 93.5 123.9 72.1 67.3 65.9 77.5 89.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 98.5 108.3 69.8 142.2 79.2 69.7 65.1 78.8 92.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 88.1 89.7 99.7 121.5 71.2 66.5 62.5 73.8 85.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 80.5 84.8 69.2 130.6 74.3 66.7 50.6 63.1 76.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 92.7 105.2 69.1 143.7 79.4 70.0 53.7 69.3 86.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 79.9 85.8 69.8 138.5 78.0 68.7 55.7 65.6 75.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 101.2 104.4 80.5 126.4 73.1 67.0 71.5 84.0 97.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 87.9 99.1 89.5 139.7 78.7 70.6 54.9 68.7 83.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 74.1 77.9 76.4 128.2 73.6 67.0 45.6 57.3 70.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 88.7 99.3 85.5 138.5 78.1 69.7 55.9 69.5 84.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 70.0 74.0 78.0 129.6 73.7 65.7 47.2 57.2 67.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 118.7 120.3 93.9 122.6 71.5 66.6 84.6 99.2 114.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 92.6 101.3 71.0 140.8 78.8 69.4 60.8 73.7 87.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------