***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 12.3 12.5 13.5 0.2 54.9 54.7 11.3 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 12.1 12.2 13.2 0.2 54.0 53.9 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 13.7 13.6 13.3 -0.1 48.6 48.6 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 8.7 8.8 11.0 0.2 55.2 55.1 7.4 8.5 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 11.0 10.5 11.2 -0.3 43.5 44.0 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 9.8 9.4 8.6 -0.1 46.5 46.7 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 12.1 12.3 13.4 0.3 56.2 56.1 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 2.5 2.3 7.2 -1.5 18.2 20.4 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.1 11.1 -0.4 39.6 40.2 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 10.2 10.3 8.6 -1.1 26.4 28.1 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 10.5 10.6 10.2 -0.7 33.1 34.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 8.1 8.3 8.6 -1.0 26.4 28.2 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.6 9.6 -0.2 43.6 44.0 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.4 10.5 -0.6 34.7 35.7 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 13.4 13.4 12.9 0.7 66.3 65.3 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.1 11.4 10.1 -0.3 43.5 43.9 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 96 4 100 12.4 12.6 13.0 0.2 54.7 54.5 11.4 12.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 8.7 8.8 8.0 -1.1 25.8 27.2 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 12.2 12.2 13.0 0.0 50.6 50.6 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 4.5 4.5 5.8 -1.5 18.1 20.1 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 11.7 11.3 12.5 -0.2 45.4 45.6 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 97 3 100 11.6 11.5 12.8 -0.1 48.8 48.9 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 11.9 11.4 12.6 -0.3 44.4 44.7 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.9 10.6 -0.6 35.2 36.1 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 12.0 12.0 12.5 0.1 51.6 51.6 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 10.6 10.1 8.6 -0.2 44.5 44.7 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 12.0 12.2 13.2 0.3 55.7 55.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 10.8 11.1 11.6 0.4 59.7 59.2 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 6.5 6.3 6.8 -1.6 17.2 19.0 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 12.2 12.3 13.4 0.1 52.5 52.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------