***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.4 14.4 0.0 49.8 50.8 11.5 12.4 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.2 13.9 -0.2 46.0 48.0 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.1 14.4 -0.1 48.7 50.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.2 12.0 0.3 55.0 54.1 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.0 12.5 0.3 55.1 54.7 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.2 10.2 0.6 61.9 58.7 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.3 14.0 -0.2 45.8 47.8 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.6 9.6 0.1 52.0 52.4 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.1 11.9 12.3 0.1 51.0 52.0 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.8 10.6 0.1 51.3 52.0 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.6 11.8 0.3 55.4 55.0 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.0 10.8 0.3 56.8 55.9 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.3 10.7 0.3 57.2 56.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.2 11.7 -0.3 43.3 46.0 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.3 13.6 0.5 60.7 58.5 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.2 11.5 0.4 57.7 56.4 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.4 13.6 -0.3 44.8 47.1 11.8 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.3 9.8 0.0 49.9 50.8 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.2 13.9 -0.2 46.6 48.4 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.3 7.9 0.0 50.4 50.8 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.8 13.6 0.0 50.2 51.2 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.7 13.5 -0.4 43.3 46.0 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.9 13.7 -0.2 47.1 48.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.7 11.8 -0.1 47.5 49.3 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.1 13.4 0.1 51.3 51.7 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 10.2 0.5 59.7 57.0 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.4 13.9 0.0 50.4 51.0 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.2 12.5 0.4 58.4 56.6 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.6 9.0 -0.1 47.4 48.8 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.4 14.2 -0.2 46.9 48.7 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------