***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.8 15.2 0.2 53.7 53.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.9 15.0 0.2 53.5 52.6 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 15.4 0.3 56.1 55.2 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.9 12.9 0.5 59.7 58.1 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.4 12.8 0.4 57.4 56.3 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.5 11.0 0.7 64.8 61.4 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.0 15.0 0.1 52.8 52.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.2 10.6 0.4 59.4 57.7 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.4 13.0 0.4 58.2 57.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.3 11.5 0.4 59.1 57.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.1 12.2 0.4 59.5 57.9 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.4 11.4 0.5 61.3 59.0 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.8 11.0 0.4 59.7 58.0 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.8 12.8 0.1 52.0 51.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.3 14.3 0.7 64.2 61.7 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.6 11.8 0.5 61.1 59.1 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.2 14.9 0.2 53.1 52.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.3 10.7 0.5 60.2 58.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.9 15.0 0.2 54.1 53.1 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.7 8.4 0.3 56.6 55.6 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 14.4 0.3 55.9 55.2 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.4 14.6 0.1 52.1 51.5 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.6 14.9 0.2 54.5 53.4 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.5 12.7 0.4 57.8 56.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.5 13.8 0.2 53.9 53.5 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.3 10.8 0.6 62.7 59.2 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.8 14.5 0.2 54.2 53.7 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.5 13.4 0.6 62.5 60.4 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 9.9 0.3 57.0 56.0 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.2 15.2 0.2 53.6 52.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------