***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.2 15.9 0.3 55.8 54.8 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.7 15.8 0.3 55.8 54.4 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.6 16.2 0.4 57.7 56.1 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.0 13.7 0.5 60.3 59.1 10.0 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.4 13.5 0.3 57.0 56.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.8 12.5 11.7 0.5 62.4 59.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.9 15.8 0.3 55.3 54.2 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.3 11.3 0.4 59.0 58.6 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.6 13.7 0.3 57.4 56.7 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.4 12.2 0.4 58.1 57.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.2 13.0 0.4 58.5 58.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.8 12.3 12.2 0.5 60.6 59.7 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.8 11.7 0.4 58.8 58.1 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.8 13.6 0.2 53.6 53.3 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 16.0 15.8 15.1 0.7 64.7 62.2 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 15.3 14.8 12.6 0.5 60.3 59.3 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.2 15.6 0.3 55.8 54.3 13.9 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.9 11.4 0.4 57.9 57.2 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.8 15.8 0.3 56.3 54.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.6 9.1 0.3 56.5 56.8 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.5 15.1 0.4 57.2 56.1 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.3 15.3 0.2 53.5 52.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.4 15.7 0.4 57.4 55.9 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.6 13.5 0.3 57.4 56.3 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.4 14.5 0.3 56.6 55.9 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.5 11.6 0.6 64.1 61.6 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 15.1 0.3 56.1 55.1 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.0 13.7 14.1 0.6 63.2 61.0 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.2 10.6 0.2 55.7 55.5 9.7 10.8 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.0 15.9 0.3 55.5 54.3 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------