***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 22.2 24.0 24.0 -0.3 46.0 48.2 22.9 24.3 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 22.7 23.9 23.7 -0.7 41.4 44.5 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 22.6 24.3 24.2 -0.3 46.5 48.4 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 15.4 17.4 21.9 0.3 54.2 53.3 15.7 17.1 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.1 24.9 22.7 0.1 51.0 51.4 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.9 21.1 0.9 61.4 58.1 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 22.3 23.6 23.7 -0.6 42.2 45.2 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.4 20.7 0.1 51.2 51.2 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.4 24.2 23.4 0.1 50.8 51.3 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.4 24.0 21.7 0.1 51.1 51.4 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.8 24.7 23.1 0.3 53.9 53.2 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.7 23.7 22.1 0.5 55.8 54.0 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.0 22.5 0.6 57.7 55.7 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.6 22.3 -0.7 42.0 45.0 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.7 25.7 24.1 0.7 59.5 57.0 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.6 22.7 0.6 57.7 55.7 23.5 24.9 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 22.2 23.3 23.4 -0.7 41.4 44.3 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.6 23.2 20.7 -0.3 46.9 48.7 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 22.3 23.5 23.8 -0.6 42.6 45.4 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.7 18.3 18.4 -0.3 46.4 48.0 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 22.7 24.3 24.0 -0.1 48.5 49.8 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 22.6 23.6 23.1 -0.8 39.5 42.7 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.6 24.1 23.9 -0.4 45.2 47.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 22.0 23.5 22.5 -0.4 45.2 47.6 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 22.8 24.4 22.8 -0.2 47.6 49.1 23.3 24.6 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 22.3 24.9 21.8 1.0 62.4 58.5 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 22.3 23.9 23.3 -0.3 46.0 48.2 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 23.7 25.6 23.0 0.6 58.9 56.4 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 16.7 18.1 19.7 -0.4 45.1 47.4 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 22.6 23.9 23.8 -0.6 42.9 45.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------